中国移动(00941.HK)2019财年上半年业绩低于预期给予“中性”评级目标价77.00港元
机构:国泰君安
评级:中性
目标价:77.00港元

中国移动2019财年上半年业绩低于预期。2019财年上半年,通信服务收入同比下降1.3%至人民币3,514亿元,主要由于提速降费带来的压力和激烈的市场竞争。由于运营费用的上升,若剔除掉会计准则变化的影响,则公司的EBITDA同比下降4.6%,而公司的股东净利则同比下降了13.9%。
2019年上半年的客户净增数持续放缓,累计移动客户净增数和累计4G客户净增数分别同比下跌46.4%和22.7%。我们预计人口红利的下降和激烈的市场竞争将导致公司的客户净增数在2019年下半年持续放缓。由于国内流量漫游费的取消是由2018年下半年开始实行的,因此预计2019年下半年国内流量漫游费取消对于收入的同比变化将无翘尾影响。但我们预计提速降费政策带来的数据流量费的下降将为公司的移动ARPU带来压力。因此我们预计2019年下半年公司的移动业务仍将受到压力。2019年上半年有线宽带客户的累计净增数同比下降18.7%,但净增数仍远高于竞争对手。我们预计2019年公司的有线宽带客户净增数同比将有所下降,但捆绑销售策略将依旧为公司带来较为强劲的有线宽带用户增长。公司已经获得工信部发放的5G牌照。但我们预计短期内5G还无法大幅改善公司的移动ARPU。
公司目前的投资评级为“中性”,目标价为77.00港元。我们将在下一份公司报告中下调公司的盈利预测和目标价,以及检讨相应的投资评级。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.