澳博控股(0880.HK)“上葡京“项目再延期人流红利或难延续
机构：兴业证券
投资要点
公司2019H1收入微降0.7%，但EBITDA胜市场预期，盈利能力显著提升。澳博控股1H19录得收入170.74亿港元，按年微降0.7%，逊于彭博一致预期173.47亿港元约1.6%。然而，受益于盈利能力较高的中场业务发力，公司期内录得EBITDA20.78亿港元（yoy+6.1%），归母净利润16.79亿港元（yoy+12.1%），超彭博预期15.49亿港元约8.4%。公司期内收入结构优化及营运效率提升促使其EBITDA利润率及净利润率均录得增长，创近年来新高。?旅客增长推动中场业务发力，VIP博彩业务表现不尽人意。公司期内录得博彩毛收入204.32亿港元（yoy-7.5%）；其中，VIP/中场/角子机毛收入达74.55亿港元/124.02亿港元/5.75亿港元，同比-25.1%/8%/-1.2%，不及行业水平，但亦属常态。然而公司旗下物业的中低端定位及地理位置为其有效的吸引到了港珠澳大桥通车后带来的人流，促进其中场毛收入占比大增6.3pct至60.7%。而公司VIP业务延续了疲软态势，转码额按年大跌31.2%。
非博彩业务无惊喜，“上葡京”项目再次延期。公司期内录得非博彩业务收入3.54亿元，按年仅增长0.23%。在公司现有物业难以有较大突破的同时，其“上葡京”项目再次延期半年以上，符合我们于6月中旬便提出的公司该项目或延期至20H2开业的观点。此外，公司亦将项目投入预算提升30亿至390亿港元。该反复短期内或影响市场对公司信心。但长期看，新项目的落成届时有望为公司提供增量收入，摄取显著的市场份额。
我们的观点：公司期内收入表现平平，但收入结构有所优化，盈利能力改善。其赌场布局有效受惠于港珠澳大桥的开通，于期内进一步推动公司中场业绩，但近期香港局势或影响访港旅客数，局限大桥引流效果，预计下半年公司中场业务增速或难以延续。此外，公司相对落后的吸烟室布局亦不利于其VIP业务回暖。短期看，公司博彩增速或持续低于行业水平，难掩市占率下滑趋势。中长期看，公司“上葡京”项目最快有望于2020Q3面世，有望强势推动公司业绩增长。虽公司现估值处相对低位，但短期内“上葡京”的多次延期或进一步影响市场对其信心，不利于其估值修复。此外，澳门政府将于2019年底换届，届时，新一任政府对新项目各指标的批复或存在一定的不确定因素。建议投资者审慎关注。
风险提示：大陆经济不景气，行业竞争加剧，新项目延期，监管政策变化
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