美国电塔(AMT)国际共享铁塔领导者全球通信周期开启志在必得给予“增持”评级
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
本报告导读：
美国电塔是国际领先的共享铁塔公司，20余载发展国内业务成熟，海外业务持续扩张，公司有机增长趋势不断验证，有望受益全球通信周期建设业绩持续向好。
摘要：
首次覆盖，给予增持评级。美国电塔是全球领先的跨国铁塔企业，20余载探索奠定行业领先地位。预计2019-2021财年营业收入分别为83.60、93.96和103.58亿美元，增速为12.37%、12.39%、10.25%，净利润为13.50、15.67、18.18亿美元，增速为10.03%、16.04%、16.02%。
美国国内业绩稳健，海外业绩尚处发展初期有望走出规律性趋势。
1995年成立以来，公司经历了并购扩张期（1995-2002年）、增效调整期（2002-2008年）和稳定期（2008年以后）。并购扩张期快速并购促使站址数量爆炸增长，但债务负担重拖累盈利能力；增效调整期公司战略放缓并购步伐，注重内在效率的提升，促进共享降本增效同时剥离非核心业务，营收增长同时利润率持续提升，2006年实现净利润翻正；稳定期加速扩展海外业务，资本开支增加同时共享率水平有所降低，因此海外业务扩展一定程度降低了公司利润率水平，预期海外业务发展成熟后有望延续国内发展规律，2019年H1海外并购持续，同时各地区均实现有机增长，趋势验证持续向好。
铁塔租赁业务模式可靠，独立运营优势明显。公司拥有庞大的且持续扩张的站址数量保证了公司可服务用户的规模；长期且不可取消的租赁合约与高续租率保证了公司稳健可预测的收入；AMT作为独立运营铁塔公司议价能力强，合约内嵌年度价格上调机制与成本转嫁，叠加公司共享率水平较高，边际成本可控性强；转型REITs财务费用进一步下降。公司独立运营模式健康，市场给予更高估值。
公司先发优势显著，站址规模庞大，地域分布广泛，面对行业新周期志在必得。公司二季度增长主要系全球各地快速增长的数据流量需求驱动铁塔租赁需求和租户数量快速上升。公司有望持续受益美国国内5G通信周期建设以及海外新兴市场数据流量扩张与4G普及机遇，此外由于公司业务覆盖地区无线技术部署处于不同阶段，公司业绩受运营商投资周期影响大幅减弱。
风险提示：铁塔行业竞争加剧风险；海外收入不及预期风险；5G通信技术变革速度不及预期风险。
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