安踏体育(2020.HK)发盈喜现时股价是否高估？
一、事件
安踏体育(2020.HK)发布盈喜，预计上半年经营溢利将同比增长不少于50%，股东应占溢利将增长不少于25%。
二、点评
Q2很多QDII基金重仓体育服饰股，李宁(2331.HK)成为中银全球策略第三大重仓股，今天盘中一度创52周新高20.55港元，收盘涨幅回落至2.89%，收报19.92港元。安踏无视浑水五次狙击，今天收涨1.87%，收报57.3港元。
7月11日，安踏刚刚公布2019Q2的营运数据，安踏牌流水同比10%~20%中段增长，非安踏牌流水实现同比55%~60%增长。2019H1安踏牌流水实现同比10%~20%低段增长，非安踏牌流水实现同比60%~65%增长。
整体来看，此次业绩超预期。公司对上半年经营溢利率较2018年上半年增加的解释是：
①零售业务的贡献增加，而一般其产生的毛利率较批发业务高；
②本集团提前收到政府补助；
③经营开支比率(占收益百分比)相对稳定。
一直以来，安踏的分销体系都十分稳定，说明安踏的渠道把控力较高，市占率一直稳居全国第一，仅次于耐克和阿迪达斯。
2019Q2恰逢有618活动，上半年公司的电商流水同比增长超25%，达到增长目标。儿童业务也非常出色，增长大概30%，门店数量预计会新开200家，儿童业务依然值得期待。
Q2FILA全品牌增长接近60%，其中大货/KIDS/潮牌/线上分，增长45%、70%、300%、80%，海外也同比增加80%以上。在高基数的情况下，FILA的增长仍然有保证，说明品牌力和产品力较强。这个品牌一直坚持直营，定位中高端市场，对时尚转变的把握较好。DESCENT、KOLON、SPRANDI等其他品牌增长表现可观。
6月末，ChipWilson溢价投资安踏。以每股49.11港元购买1584.2万新股(约增发后总股本的0.59％)，总代价7.78亿港元。这次靓丽的业绩总算对得起ChipWilson的支持。
之前FILA逆势增长成为新增长点，接着开始国际化收购，安踏的运营确实较为出色，预计2019全年归母净利同增30%，对应PE24。
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