华润燃气(1193.HK)政策消除不确定因素润燃受惠其中给予「中性偏好」评级目标价46.0港元
机构：元富证券
评级：中性偏好
目标价：46.0港元
政策消除不确定因素 润燃受惠其中
华润燃气(1193)主要在内地从事下游城市燃气分销，包括管道天然气、液化石油 气、压缩天然气加气站及瓶装气，以及提供燃气接驳业务等。该股背靠国有企业华 润集团，实力雄厚，是业内拥有最多城市项目的燃气企业。截至去年底止，城市燃 气项目数目达 248 个，遍布全国22省、3直辖市、73个地级市。集团不断扩大经 营区域，为核心业务的持续增长奠定基础。
中国发改委较早前已就规管城市燃气安装费发布正式文件，规定燃气接驳费回报上 限为 10%，取消城镇燃气安装的不合理收费，规管内容较预期温和，并扫除对燃气 股的不明朗因素。政策可令地方政府拥有更大的灵活性，对行业起积极作用，润燃 作为业内龙头，固然可以受惠其中。
集去年业绩表现强劲，主要受惠在经济较发达的地区城市燃气项目占比较多，以 及全国城镇化的快速发展。2018年度纯利按年增长 21.8%至 44.5亿港元，营业额 上升 28.4%至 511.7亿港元。年内燃气总销量上升23.4%至242.8 亿立方米天然 气，其中工业销气量增长 32%至114.1 亿立方米，占总销气量约47%；商业销气 量增长 22.5%至 54.5亿立方米，占总销气量约 22.4%；民用销气量则增15.8%至 55.2 亿立方米，占总销气量约22.7%。
分部收入方面，燃气销售收入上升 38.3%至 402.1亿港元，占整体约 78.6%；燃气 用户总数增长 12.4%至 3464 万户，居民与工商用户分别新增381万及 2万户。至 於接驳业务收入增长 11.4%至 99.4亿元，占整体约 19.4%。
去年内地出台多项环保政策，积极推进大气污染防治工作，重点强化区域的民用、 采暖、工业等行业煤改气。集团冀借助此次契机，深入发展工商业市场，积极推动 用户使用天然气，实现销气快速增加。
此外，集团现金充裕，去年经营性现金净额增加 7%至83.42亿港元，期末现 金结余达 103.93 亿港元。而集团去年派末期息62 港仙，连同中期息15港仙，全 年累派 77港仙，按年增加 40%。倘若集团并无大型并购动作，憧憬增加派息金额， 可作为日後股价上升的催化剂。
根据彭博通讯综合市场分析，预期华润燃气 2019、2020 及 2021年每股盈利为 2.317、2.553及 2.864港元，给予12 个月目标价46.0港元，相当於今年预测市 盈率 19.8倍，评级「中性偏好」。
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