本周安踏体育(2020.HK)三遭沽空二季度营运成绩单符合预期？
一、事件
今天收盘后，安踏体育(2020.HK)发布2019年第二季度最新营运表现，主要内容如下：
2019年Q2表现
安踏品牌零售金额较2018年同期录得10%-20% 的中段增长。
其他品牌零售金额较2018年同期录得 55%-60% 的升幅。
2019上半年表现
安踏品牌较2018年同期比较录得10%-20%的低段增长。
其他品牌较2018年同期比较录得60%-65%的升幅。
二、点评
和6月底李宁(2331.HK)发布的预期业绩相比，李宁 2019年上半财年，收入同比增长超30%，一次性非经营性利润不少于2亿元，净利润增加不少于4.4亿元人民币。整体估计2019年安踏会较逊色于李宁。
对比它2019年Q1运营数据：主品牌零售金额录得 10-20%低段增长，其他品牌（FILA、Descente、NBA、Sprandi、Kingkow和Kolon）零售金额录得65-70%增长。
2019年Q1时，FILA零售流水增长70%左右（2018年Q1非安踏品牌流水增速基数较高），这次 FILA的流水同比增长60%，超出我们的预期。FILA本身具有较强势的品牌力和产品力， FILA的子系列的Fusion和Kids也有较大发展潜力。不过，管理层曾在两天前的电话会议中表示，FILA很多店是去年下半年新开的，所以下半年增速会略低。
此前收购的Amer（亚玛芬）原本预计在2019Q2 并表，但本季度公司表明不包含这方面的数据。预计未来并表后，收购产生的费用支出对财报带来一定影响。Amer主要做滑雪器材、滑雪装备、运动手表、自行车轮等产品，旺季会在下半年。这项收购长期看，能够为安踏走向国际化奠定基础。我们预计安踏的收入在2019年能实现25%的增长。
浑水昨天也发起第三次沽空行动，认为大家不能相信安踏FILA店的数量。报告称，作为独立第三方的苏伟卿在北京拥有46家FILA店，但安踏一直声称持有所有的斐乐店。安踏要么在苏伟卿的事上撒了谎，要么就是在FILA店数量的事上撒谎。董事会随即发布澄清公告坚决反对，但没有拿出实质证据。
之前安踏被Chip Wilson(Lululemon的创始人，已退休) 力挺。6月末，Chip Wilson溢价投资安踏。以每股49.11港元购买1584.2万新股(约增发后总股本的0.59％)，总代价7.78亿港元。
7月11日，安踏收报51.3港元，收涨0.98%，丝毫没受沽空机构一周内三度狙击的影响。短期内，好业绩对股价会有所带动，但目前已基本反映这一利好。
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