植耀辉:恒指考验二万八关後市变数多宜审慎
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称，港股近期气氛相当麻麻，中美贸易谈判未见新进展，美国联储局7月底是否仍如市场预期般减息存有变数；至於本地方面，政经局势依然不明朗，加上大型集资活动，令港股表现乏善可陈。以往投资者还会憧憬A股造好，有望带动港股表现，可惜A股亦「不争气」─密集「打新」加上担心经济数据表现，沪综指亦进一步失守3,000大关。当然，美国总统特朗普言论等因素仍须留意，至於恒指短期暂先看28,000点支持是否守稳。
不过近期有两件事，值得大家加倍关注，因可能会对後市发展有相当大启示。其一是摩根士丹利最新发表有关环球股市之研究报告。报告内容已有不少媒体大肆报道，笔者亦不重复。想指出的是，大摩如此看淡环球股市前景，主要是基於经济前景恶化(各国PMI表现持续低迷)以及企业盈利可能被高估。两大因素虽然并非「新鲜事」，但见美股一直长升长有，加上炒作环球放水潮，令投资者逐渐放下戒心。不过笔者相信，由於美股即将踏入第二季业绩发布期，只要盈利状况不及预期，颇大机会会出现显着回调。无疑美股仍会有特朗普「加持」，只是现实归现实，美股现时已升至历史高位，稍有不利消息足可令股市出现剧震。
第二件则与本地市场有关。笔者统计港交所网站公司通告资料，发现原来过去一个月已有接近120间以上公司发盈利预警，当中便包括蓝筹之中电(00002.HK)及吉利(00175.HK)，以及部分耳熟能详股份，包括东亚(00023.HK)、建滔(00148.HK)及金蝶(00268.HK)等。盈警原因不外乎是受贸易战引致经营环境转差，以及其他个别因素等。由美国发动之贸易战衍生之负面影响正陆续浮现。当中，建滔为全球最大覆铜面板(PCB)生产商，其业务表现对环球经济有一定启示。事实上，过往亦有一种讲法，就是PCB与经济敏感度相当高，故当PCB销情亦开始转趋放缓下，亦反映环球经济阴霾不定，投资者亦是时候打守势牌矣。
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