植耀輝:恆指考驗二萬八關後市變數多宜審慎
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱，港股近期氣氛相當麻麻，中美貿易談判未見新進展，美國聯儲局7月底是否仍如市場預期般減息存有變數；至於本地方面，政經局勢依然不明朗，加上大型集資活動，令港股表現乏善可陳。以往投資者還會憧憬A股造好，有望帶動港股表現，可惜A股亦「不爭氣」─密集「打新」加上擔心經濟數據表現，滬綜指亦進一步失守3,000大關。當然，美國總統特朗普言論等因素仍須留意，至於恆指短期暫先看28,000點支持是否守穩。
不過近期有兩件事，值得大家加倍關注，因可能會對後市發展有相當大啟示。其一是摩根士丹利最新發表有關環球股市之研究報告。報告內容已有不少媒體大肆報道，筆者亦不重複。想指出的是，大摩如此看淡環球股市前景，主要是基於經濟前景惡化(各國PMI表現持續低迷)以及企業盈利可能被高估。兩大因素雖然並非「新鮮事」，但見美股一直長升長有，加上炒作環球放水潮，令投資者逐漸放下戒心。不過筆者相信，由於美股即將踏入第二季業績發布期，只要盈利狀況不及預期，頗大機會會出現顯著回調。無疑美股仍會有特朗普「加持」，只是現實歸現實，美股現時已升至歷史高位，稍有不利消息足可令股市出現劇震。
第二件則與本地市場有關。筆者統計港交所網站公司通告資料，發現原來過去一個月已有接近120間以上公司發盈利預警，當中便包括藍籌之中電(00002.HK)及吉利(00175.HK)，以及部分耳熟能詳股份，包括東亞(00023.HK)、建滔(00148.HK)及金蝶(00268.HK)等。盈警原因不外乎是受貿易戰引致經營環境轉差，以及其他個別因素等。由美國發動之貿易戰衍生之負面影響正陸續浮現。當中，建滔為全球最大覆銅面板(PCB)生產商，其業務表現對環球經濟有一定啟示。事實上，過往亦有一種講法，就是PCB與經濟敏感度相當高，故當PCB銷情亦開始轉趨放緩下，亦反映環球經濟陰霾不定，投資者亦是時候打守勢牌矣。
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