外資機構紛紛上調中國經濟增速預期!惠譽是最新一個
惠譽將今年中國經濟增速預期上調至5%,高盛、大摩以及IMF也看好中國經濟前景。
得益於中國防疫政策的持續優化,外資機構紛紛大幅上調了中國經濟增速預期。
當地時間週三,惠譽評級在修正後的預測中表示,2023年中國經濟將增長5%,遠高於去年12月預測的4.1%。
惠譽指出,上調預期是基於“消費和經濟活動復甦速度快於最初預期的證據”,此外,中國最新的PMI數據顯示,中國經濟將進一步增長。
自防疫政策優化以來,中國經濟景氣度已經觸底反彈。國家統計局早前公佈的數據顯示,中國1月製造業PMI從此前的47升至50.1,繼連續三個月收縮後重返擴張區間,非製造業PMI升至54.4,創2022年6月以來的最高水平。
惠譽Brian Coulton研究團隊在一份新聞稿中表示:“從新冠衝擊中迅速反彈,意味着2023年上半年的經濟活動要比我們預測的強。”該團隊還指出,中國去年12月份的GDP數據好於惠譽預期。
早在惠譽之前,多個機構已經上調了中國經濟增速預期。
高盛將今年中國經濟增長預期從4.5%上調至5.5%,摩根士丹利從5%上調至5.7%,此外,國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)將中國2023年的GDP增長預期上調至5.2%,較上一次的預測上調了0.8個百分點。
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