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耀才團隊: 恆指發出死亡交叉訊號 後市不宜太過樂觀
阿思達克 08-30 10:51

耀才證券研究部團隊稱,隔晚(29日)美股反彈。美國總統特朗普表示週四稍晚將與中國舉行不同級別的對話,市場憧憬中美之間緊張的貿易局勢得以緩和,資金重新流入風險資產。道指收市升326點或1.25%,收報26,362點;標普500指數升1.27%,收報2,924點;納指升1.48%,收報7,973點。目前美股聚焦貿易戰後續,經濟數據暫時未對大市產生太大影響。隔晚公佈的美國第二季GDP按年增長由2.1%向下修訂至2%,雖然和市場預期相若,但低於第一季度的3.1%和上半年平均的2.6%;第二季核心PCE通脹則為1.7%,低於預期的1.8%;申領失業救濟金人數亦較預期多。

美國經濟基本面並未顯著改善,貿易戰雖有好消息,但中美深層紛爭亦難以短時間內解決,風險資產短線反彈空間有限,後市依然易跌難升。隔晚港股ADR收市升83點,夜期則預示港股將至少高開170點。目前港股仍聚焦企業業績,今日將有多隻內銀股和基建股放榜,包括中行(03988.HK)、民行(01988.HK)、中鐵(00390.HK)、中交建(01800.HK)和中鐵建(01186.HK),值得留意。

從技術上看,恆指50天線跌穿250天線,發出死亡交叉訊號,即使短線出現反彈,後市亦不宜太過樂觀。目前大市在二萬六大關面臨較大阻力,倘恆指未能企穩於26,000點樓上,指數後市很大可能會順勢跌穿8月低位24,899點,並續創年內新低。

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